Bitcoin’s on-chain data is signaling a cooling period. Normalized Address Activity (NAA), a key metric for transactional intensity, has dropped from 60% (the level where the $124,128 all-time high was set) to 30%. Fewer coins are moving on-chain. Selling pressure has eased. Short-term supply looks weaker.
At the same time, annual NAA has climbed. From 30% at the $80K level to 40% now. That means more long-term holders are willing to take profits at higher prices.
For context, peak selling hit in September 2023. NAA touched 85%. Bitcoin traded at just $37K then.
So what’s changed? The seller base is expanding, but slowly. It’s no longer early stage. It’s mid-stage now.
When Bitcoin Peaks
Coingecko’s latest research shows a clear pattern:
All post-halving all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 came late in the year. November or December.
- First cycle: Bitcoin ran from $12 at the 2012 Halving to $1,127 in Nov 2013. That peak came 368 days after the Halving. Fastest cycle top on record.
- Second cycle: $19,665 in Dec 2017. It took 525 days post-Halving. Five months longer than the first.
- Third cycle: $69,044 in Nov 2021. 549 days after the Halving. 24 days longer than 2017.
Average time from Halving to ATH? 481 days. Cycles are getting longer as the market matures.
Why 2025 Looks Different
This cycle broke the pattern.
Bitcoin hit $124,128 on Aug 14, 2025.
Three things stand out:
- It peaked 68 days earlier than 2021.
- It was the second-fastest Halving-to-ATH in history.
- It set the first pre-Halving ATH ever at $73,581 in March 2024.
If August was the top, this cycle may have peaked early.
But history hints at something else.
If the timeline follows 2017 or 2021, another ATH could arrive between late Sept and late Oct 2025.
The Federal Reserve’s September decision could be the trigger.
https://twitter.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/1960977446901047615?t=yzv0hVd6ByOdWfQVDaY48Q&s=19
What the Data Signals
NAA trends point to less short-term selling pressure. That’s bullish.
But rising annual NAA shows long-term holders are eyeing exits at higher prices. That’s supply waiting overhead.
The mix signals mid-cycle. Not euphoria. Not panic.
And the timing matters.
Previous cycles suggest ATHs come late in the year. But this cycle already gave us two record highs:
- $73,581 in March 2024
- $124,128 in Aug 2025
If the Fed goes dovish in September, another run could happen before year-end.
If not, August might stand as the peak.
Bitcoin’s Bigger Picture To Watch
Bitcoin’s rhythm is changing.
The first three cycles followed the Halving-to-ATH template almost perfectly. Late-year tops. Lengthening timelines.
This time, the script flipped:
- Early ATH before the Halving.
- Another in August, months ahead of the usual schedule.
The data suggests the market is maturing. Holders are patient. Selling pressure builds slower now.
But one thing hasn’t changed: big moves often come around key macro events. The Fed’s September call might decide if we see one more high.
Until then, address activity tells the story. Less short-term selling. More long-term positioning.
Bitcoin sits mid-cycle. The next few months will decide if August was the top, or just another step higher.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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